The Challenge
National-level figures on AI and jobs tell you little about what's happening in your area. A combined authority with a workforce concentrated in logistics, construction and care faces a very different challenge from one with large concentrations of administrative, financial and professional services work. The first may see relatively little near-term disruption; the second could see significant displacement in occupations that employ a large share of its residents. Generic national exposure figures are a poor guide for local policy.
The question is not whether AI will affect your labour market, but which occupations, when, and where displaced workers are likely to go. Getting this right requires moving from national averages to place-specific analysis.
What the Research Tells Us
The academic literature offers a clear framework: AI destroys some jobs through displacement but creates others through reinstatement. The net effect depends on which force dominates. History suggests that economies eventually self-correct, but the transition can be painful and prolonged - and the impact is uneven across places.
The displacement effect is straightforward: when AI automates tasks previously performed by workers, it reduces labour demand in affected occupations. Unlike previous automation waves that primarily displaced routine manual work, AI can automate non-routine cognitive tasks across a much broader spectrum. Administrative and clerical roles face the highest immediate risk.
The reinstatement effect is more subtle: as automation reduces costs in some areas, the savings are spent elsewhere, creating demand for labour in new tasks and occupations. New roles emerge, though not always in the same places or at the same wage levels as the jobs that were lost.
Critically, the impact varies by region. An area's exposure depends on its occupational profile, the structure of local labour markets, and the retraining options available to affected workers. To explore this in more depth, read the full framework here.
Our Approach
We've built the a detailed place-based AI exposure database, combining the latest academic research with granular local labour market data. Our analysis has three layers, each addressing a different dimension of the challenge.
First, we map occupational exposure. Using multiple task-based exposure measures from the academic literature, we identify which specific occupations in your area face displacement risk under different scenarios—from conservative near-term estimates focused on the most vulnerable roles through to broader scenarios capturing wider AI capabilities and organisational restructuring. This tells you not just that "30% of jobs are at risk" but precisely which jobs, where they're concentrated, and how robust that assessment is.
Second, we model spillover effects. First-round displacement is only part of the story. When displaced workers compete for safer occupations, they create pressure on roles that are not themselves directly at risk from AI. We quantify this absorption pressure across your labour market, identifying which occupations will face increased competition and what this means for wages and hiring.
Third, we evaluate retraining pathways. For each exposed occupation, we assess the nearest viable alternatives—roles requiring similar skills that offer protection from automation. Some exposed workers can reach comparable-pay safe destinations with modest training. Others face significant pay cuts unless substantial retraining is undertaken. Understanding these pathways is essential for designing effective skills policy. For more details, read through the methodology here.
This work connects directly to our broader place-based industrial strategy practice. AI is one component of economic change, and it interacts with sector-specific transitions, demographic shifts, and existing industrial strengths. We help you see how the pieces fit together.
What You Get
A place-specific AI impact assessment covering:
- An occupational exposure scenario analysis;
- a mapping of spillovers to occupations not directly affected;
- retraining pathway evaluation and skills policy recommendations;
- and help integrating with your existing industrial strategy and skills priorities.